My current investment log:

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Race 5/19 Spain (11/05)

Pre-race positions

Qualifying run: Ricciardo vs Vettel @ 1.70 (13.42% stake of allocated pot) (WIN)

Race positions:

Race winner: L. Hamilton @ 1.57 (6.71% stake of allocated pot) (WIN)
Podium finish (top 3): N. Rosberg @ 1.22 (19.46%) (WIN)
Top 6 finish: D. Ricciardo @ 1.45 (67.11%) (WIN)

Strategy / though process

Qualifying

Leading into the race I have closed out 1/4 positions with a win. The thought process behind choosing the head-to-head of Ricciardo vs. Vettel was that the odds were the slightly skewed odds given the rooky status of F1 newcomer Ricciardo stacked against 4 time F1 world champion Vettel. Ricciardo (minus his unfortunate early season bad luck) has consistently outperformed his team member at every turn. Vettel on the other hand has been massively under performing as he is not able to take a handle on his new car.

I do predict that the perception of ability between Ricciardo and Vettel will begin to rapidly close after this race (and so will the distance between offered odds), so it was an opportunity I had to jump on before it becomes too risky / not worth it.

Result: As I predicted, Ricciardo outperformed Vettel with a third place quality run finish vs Vettel's 10th place.

“9.39% profit of total allocation”

Race

1. L. Hamilton (win)

Although the risk of Rosberg possibly taking pole position away from Hamilton, I believe Hamilton is the slightly superior driver. This whole season will be a race between the two Mercedes drivers. The strategy is to just pick one as the winner and hedge with a larger stake on the other driver to get a podium finish.

Result: The two team mates worked different strategies for this race, with Hamilton largely uncomfortable with his car setup / strategy. He managed to hold the lead the entire race and keep ahead of Rosberg. Given another lap Rosberg MAY have caught him. This was a close one for (and exciting to watch!). If Rosberg took pole I would have been up, just slightly less.

“3.82% profit of total allocation”

2. N. Rosberg (podium finish)

This was a low risk / low return hedge to my previous Hamilton (win) position. Rosberg is pretty reliable and consistent. He was able to finish second in Bahrain despite having zero telemetry, which for me, shows great ability and perseverance. With the exception of any major accident or mechanical failure, Rosberg is sure to nail a position on the podium.

Result: Rosberg and Hamilton were miles ahead of their competitors. As expected, the race was largely run between the two Mercedes boys (49 second gap between next competitor - Ricciardo). Even if Rosberg did snatch the title away from Hamilton in the last lap, this hedge position still would have won.

“2.80% profit of total allocation”

3. D. Ricciardo (top 6 finish)

For the record, i placed these three "Race" positions on before the qualifying run. The Red Bull cars are the closest competitors (albeit still miles apart) to Mercedes. Ricciardo still managed to claw his way back to a 4th place finish in Bahrain despite the 10 grid place penalty imposed on him (he started 13th on the Bahrain race). I had little doubt that he wouldn't finish in the top 6. Top threats to this position were Hamilton, Rosberg, Vettel, Alonso, and Raikkonen which still leaves him the 6th position (with the exception of crash / mechanical failure). I do realise that this position is significantly larger than all others, however, risks must be taken at the appropriate time. Opportunities & risk will only close and get worse as the season moves on and this will afford me a significant safety buffer in terms of my financial standings.

Result: Ricciardo performed exactly as expected. He qualified third and came third with a very healthy gap between the 4th placed Vettel.

“30.20% profit of total allocation”

Race take-away

4/4 is an absolute fantastic result. I have actually hit almost every single position I have opened since the beginning of this F1 season (which prompted me to start this log, for your entertainment). When I get a chance, I will try to provide the first 4 races outcomes.

Things to take away from the Spain race is: the rest of the teams are still too far to catch up to the Mercedes boys. Also of very important note is Vettel's performance. With his grid penalty starting in 14th position, he still managed to come 4th place; an absolutely terrifying result. Seems he has possibly found his groove (if his car can continue to hold out).

This does increase risk for the next Monaco race. it means that if I choose to place faith in Ricciardo's performance, Vettel has a slight chance to push Ricciardo down one position. The slow cornered nature of Monaco should tighten the track up a bit. Red Bull cars are very quick in the corners, although probably not fast enough to take on the Mercedes boys yet.

“OUTCOME 4/4 with a 46.22% pot increase”

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Get Money: Race 5 Spain (11/05)